Explaining Canadian Provincial Voting Behaviour: Nuance or Parsimony?

Abstract

As one of the first empirical works to examine cross-provincial differences in vote behaviour, this study uses provincial election data drawn from eight provincial elections held between 2011 and 2012 to assess provincial vote choice. It applies two models of vote choice pioneered at the federal level, the “bloc-recursive” model and the valence model, to provincial elections. It is found that, despite that bloc recursive model encompassing several more variables, both models are similar in their ability to predict voter behaviour. However, the bloc recursive model is superior for understanding the unique political dynamics of each province. As such, the choice of which model to use comes down to a preference for nuance or parsimony.