Resource revenue, political volatility, and Alberta’s evolving party system

Abstract

Despite long being the standard Canadian “textbook” case of a “single dominant party” system, the politics of Alberta have been subject to a highly unusual level of volatility stretching back to at least 2006, especially on the Conservative side of the ledger.  Indeed, consider that, after experiencing only three different premiers and a single governing party over a span of 35 years, Alberta had seven (!) different premiers and three different governing parties since 2006.   The aim of this article is to unpack this volatility, ultimately arguing that, although a number of different factors have played a role, it has been the volatility in the worldwide oil prices that Alberta’s fiscal position is so dependent upon, that has been most responsible.  In fact, this article further argues that the political volatility over these last years, driven largely by volatile, and now declining, resources prices, has led to a fracturing of the province’s traditional “single dominant party” system.  Alberta today appears to be on the cusp of developing a more traditional “two” or “two plus one” party system wherein conservative parties are no longer simply assumed to be the only legitimate contender.