Newfoundland and Labrador Votes: An Account of the Determinants of Vote Choice in the 2011 Election

Abstract

The 2011 Newfoundland and Labrador election would mark a turning point in provincial politics. The exit of the extraordinarily popular former premier, Danny Williams, in the year prior to the contest guaranteed that the election would, at a minimum, diverge from the pattern set in recent years. Equally significant, Williams’ successor, Kathy Dunderdale, is a historic figure: she is the first woman to lead the province and one of only six women ever to hold the top office in a Canadian province. We give an account of the determinants of the vote decision in the 2011 election. We conclude that a fairly standard set of demographic and long-term dispositional influences were highly influential in voters’ choices. At the same time, our analysis suggests that strategic considerations – especially concerning the Liberals and NDP – are critical to an understanding of the final outcome.